300 Million Rural Chinese Move to Cities by 2030
Hong Kong Nomura Research says another 300 million or so people in China will move from rural areas to cities within 20 years, which will further drive China’s growth. China’s population in 2010 is approximately 1300 million. Urbanization ratio was at 46.6% in 2009, but it would increase to 53.2% by 2015 and 68.9% by 2030. Nomura said in 2009, total employment in the primary sector was 297 million. Assuming 10% extra employment for non primary sector, it will leave some 184 million people as surplus labour in rural area. Thus, there are 256 million people currently living in rural areas who are conceivably ready to become urbanized, the house says. Household consumption should also grow alongside urbanization, which could also be a boon for a more sustainable expansion of the manufacturing sector, and help underpin investment, as demand for housing increases. Nomura said the prospect of continued rapid urbanization is one of the important reasons why it believes that China can sustain high single-digit growth rates at least over the next decade
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