UBS raised its target price for Zoomlion (Hong Kong Stock Code 01157) to HK$12.8 from HK$12.3, and maintained its “buy” rating. The house noted that Zoomlion is awarding senior management and key personnel share options on condition that the company meets its performance target, which it set for NPAT to grow not less than 12% pa in 2013-15. UBS believes the performance target in the incentive scheme helps remove uncertainties by giving clear guidance to the market. The house also expects a mild recovery in 2013.
Daiwa Research lowered its target price for Zoomlion Heavy Industry to HK$11.2 from HK$13.34, and maintained its “outperform” rating. The research house lowered its 2012 net profit estimate by 8% to RMB7.7bn given Zoomlion’s defensive strategy in 4Q2012. It also trimmed its 2013-14 net profit estimates to take into account the amortisation of RMB849m in non-cash expenses under the stock incentive plan. But Daiwa continues to favour Zoomlion in view of its strong balance sheet, operating scale and valuation discount based on 2013 PER. It believes the company will emerge from the ongoing industry consolidation as a stronger player, as weaker players eventually exit.
Goldman Sachs raised its target price for Zoomlion to HK$13.3 from HK$11.3, and maintained its “buy” rating. The research house said it visited Zoomlion early this week, and the company is now guiding 15%-20% top line growth in 2013 with RMB9bn net profit. Management also commented that 4Q2012 working capital management continued to improve. Goldman forecast more cautious +10%/+9% revenue/net profit growth in 2013 mainly due to a lower base in 2012. The house revised its 2012/13/14 EPS forecasts for Zoomlion by -8%/-9%/-9% from RMB1.16/1.28/1.49 to RMB1.07/1.16/1.36.
Zoomlion ended up 0.4% to HK$10.10.
CLSA says that some would write off the latest hike of stamp duty on Hong Kong property transactions as a low-impact measure. “We disagree.” The house says its concern is with the government’s clear readiness to act again. “We believe residential prices cannot rise more than 3% in any three months without triggering more tightening.” This means developers’ NAV cannot rise much without triggering policy risk and hence CLSA keeps its Underweight call; it adds, property agents like Midland (Hong Kong stock code 1200) will be affected badly and investors should stay away, while it prefers Hong Kong landlords and in particular Hongkong Land (H78.SG). Midland tumbles 6.3% to HK$3.41 while Midland IC&I (0459), which focuses on commercial property transactions, slumps 27.1% to 6.2 HK cents.
Belle International (Hong Kong stock code 1880) is down 13.94% at HK$15.80, a tad higher than earlier low at HK$15.40, underperforming the broader market’s 1.6% decline, after the Chinese footwear retailer said Wednesday it will post only a slight growth in 2012 net profit. The blue-chip retailer says its 2012 net profit will be “marginally higher” compared to the previous year, falling within the lower end of CNY4.29 billion and CNY4.85 billion range estimated by analysts. Belle posted a 2011 net profit of CNY4.25 billion, a 24% growth from the year earlier. It didn’t give a reason for the slower growth rate.
China Unicom (ADR: CHU, Hong Kong Stock Code 0762) ended Wednesday at HK$11.36 (equivalent to ADR US$14.64), a 3-month low, after hitting an intraday low of HK$11.24 in early afternoon session.
After market close, China Unicom said it added a total of 3.669 million 3G subscribers in January, faster than the pace of 3.132 million in the previous month, with the aggregate 3G user size growing to 80.125 million by the end of last month. There were 3.605 million net additions of mobile subscribers in January, bringing the aggregate number of mobile subscribers to about 243 million. Regarding fixed-line business, the number of local access subscribers and broadband subscribers rose 128,000 and 682,000 last month, with the total customer size reaching 92.085 million and 64.551 million.
Yesterday Deutsche Bank lifted its target price for China Unicom to HK$18.3 from HK$17.5, and maintained its “buy” rating. The research house said discussions both with China Unicom’s management and its suppliers suggest that the company is seeking to tighten up on internal controls relating to capex and other items of spend. Deutsche Bank increased its 2013 capex from RMB75b to RMB80b, but said this should mark a 20% reduction YoY in spend. As a result, FCF could top RMB15b in 2013. This favorable trend combined with a decline in cost elements such as subsidy-to-revenues, should deliver significant EPS growth this year.
Erwin Sanft of Standard Chartered Bank said in a press conference that the HSI’s current price to book value is 1.5, which is lower than the 20-year average of 1.90. Hence, getting back to a P/B value of 1.90, the HSI will rise to 28,000. He also predicts the H-Share index will rise to 15,000.
Hutchison Whampoa (OTC: HUWHY, Hong Kong Stock Code 0013) is up 1.35% to HK$86.65. BofA Merrill Lynch reiterated its “buy” rating and target price of HK$98 on Hutchison Whampoa (00013) expecting solid FY2012 results to be another step towards increasing investor confidence in Hutch’s ability to deliver growth in a difficult economic environment. The house believes valuation remains attractive at a 30% discount to 2013 NAV (versus long-term average of 15%) and stub discount at 50% (versus average of 35%). It sees high-single digit 3-year EPS CAGR ex. H3G, thanks to company-specific growth drivers (energy, China prop, Asian retail), and 12-15% growth if H3G EBIT continues to grow as planned. BofAML raised its FY2012 net profit slightly to HK$23bn, which represents 2% growth on Hutch’s recurring profit definition, but over 10% if unusual gains in 2011 are excluded.