Category Archive: Stock Reviews

China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NYSE: NPD) Transforms Into Grocery & Convenience Stores

China Nepstar, the largest drugstore chain in China based on the number of directly operated stores, has expanded its product offerings by introducing high turnover convenience merchandise such as beverages, healthy food, household consumables, personal care products and other non-pharmaceutical products. The Company hopes that it will mitigate the near-term negative impact of ongoing healthcare reform and government policies, which have caused price reductions to pharmaceuticals that are on the national essential drug list and the reimbursement drug list.  According to a report in China, when the reporter walked into the drugstore, the store clerk persuaded him to buy rice, salt, oil and vinegar which of course were not drugs at all. By the end of 2010, customers can pay utility bills such as electricity, gas and water bills at China Nepstar drugstore chain.

China Nepstar is not alone in its move to diversify into grocery business. It has recently become popular for drugstores in China to sell grocery products in competition with supermarkets, though consumers are still used to buy such products from supermarkets.

The Company also rolled out Nepstar Shopper’s Card Program in May. The Nepstar Shopper’s Card is a prepaid card, with different face value from RMB300 to RMB3,000. Customers can use the Card to buy products at Nepstar stores. For every RMB6 of the face value of the Card, the card owner receives a bonus credit of RMB1, which can be used to purchase products in the stores.

According to China Chain Store & Franchise Association (CCSFA), China Nepstar Chain Drugstore ranked no. 70 on the 2009 China Top 100 Chain Retailers Billboard, in terms of sales revenue. For pharmaceutical retailing sector, China Nepstar ranked no.1 in terms of sales revenue as well as the number of directly operated outlets. According to CCSFA, the sales revenue of Top 100 chains hit RMB1.36 trillion in 2009, with a year-over-year growth of 13.5%, accounting for 11% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in China. The total store number of Top 100 chains has increased 18.9%, reaching 137,000. China Nepstar ranked no.1 in both sales revenue and the number of directly operated outlets for the 3rd consecutive year in pharmaceutical retailing sector.

China Nepstar will report its second quarter 2010 financial results on August 11. Its last report released in May revealed that its income for the first quarter of 2010 had increased by 12.1% year-on-year at RMB567 million, with 23.2% of its income from drug prescriptions, 36.9% from OTC drugs, 20.6% from nutritional supplements, 3.6% from Chinese herbals and 15.7 from other products. However, the net income in first the quarter was only RMB2.6 million, plunging from the previous quarter (4Q 2009)’s RMB43 million. Its January to February sales, in one of its main sales areas, the city of Hangzhou, was RMB32.68 million and the loss was RMB3.5 million. Its February sales there was RMB15.96, suffering a loss of RMB1.2 million. Though its private label stragegy has increased its gross profit margins, it has also reduced its customers base as many customers cannot find the brands they want from the store chain. In 2009, 29% of its sales revenue were from private labels, contributing 43.3%  gross profit. In the last quarter of 2009, China Nepstar added 156 stores and closed 14 during the same period.

The performance of China Nepstar in NYSE is indeed poor. Having been capped at $7.5 from November 2009 to April this year, it plunged to a 32 month low at $2.9 on July 19. It closed at $3.02 today, July 30, 2010, just 4.1% above its 32 month low. Bottom pickers should be cautious and it may be better to bet on stronger stocks.

 

Related article:

China Nepstar Chain Drugstore – The Lucky Star

Stock Review – Hutchison Whampoa

Hutchison Whampoa – OTC: HUWHY.PK, Germany – HUWA.F, HUWA.BE, HUWA.MU, Hong Kong Stock Code: 0013

Hutchison (HWL) is a multi-national conglomerate and the largest conglomerate in Hong Kong, with operations spanning 56 countries. The Group’s market capitalization is over US$30 billion with 4.26 billion issued shares. It is a top pick in China Hong Kong stocks with 10 to 30% upside opportunities.

The Group consists of the following core businesses:

  1. Ports and Related Services – Total throughput for the year 2008 were 67.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) and the revenue was HK$39,594 million (US$5.1 billion).
  2. Property and Hotels -The property and hotels division reported a total revenue of HK$10,467 million (US$1.35 billion) in  2008. The Group has property investments in Mainland China.
  3. Retail – The Group has significant retail operations in Western and Eastern Europe, Asia and Mainland China. Total revenue was HK$118,487 million (US$15.27 billion) in 2008.
  4. Cheung Kong Infrastructure – Cheung Kong Infrastructure‘s turnover was HK$7,486 million (US$965 million) in 2008 and it has three power plants in Mainland China.
  5. Husky Energy – It had operating revenues of C$24,701 million and net earnings of C$3,754 million. Average total production in 2008 was 355,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (“BOE” per day). Husky has recently made its third significant gas discovery on Block 29/26 in the South China Sea.
  6. Finance and Investments – The Group’s consolidated cash and liquid investments totaled HK$88,021 million (US$113.43 billion) as at 31 December 2008.
  7. Hutchison Telecommunications International – In 2008, HTIL had a consolidated mobile customer base of 12.1 million. Recently HWL is offering HK$2.2 per share to privatize HTIL whose remaining operations are unprofitable.
  8. 3 Group – All 3 Group operations reported its registered 3G customer base stands at over 20.7 million customers.  3 Group’s customer base includes over 2.5 million mobile broadband access customers. 3 Group revenue was HK$60,372 million (US$7.78 billion) in 2008. In February 2009, Hutchison Telecommunications (Australia) combined its businesses with Vodafone’s businesses in Australia.

The Group announced in late February that it has earmarked GBP1 billion to invest further in its U.K. assets over next 2 years. Discount health and beauty retailer Superdrug and Hutchison Whampoa Property are likely beneficiaries of further capital investments as well as 3, the U.K. mobile company owned by Hutchison.

Insider Trading

From October 2009 to January 2010 Hutchison Whampoa (0013.HK) Li Ka-shing spent over HK$1.0 billion (US$128.87 million) raising stake in HWL and his frequency of buying was unprecedented, as shown by the following dates of purchases:

October 14, 15; November 19, 20; Dec 15, 17, 18, 21; Jan 8, 11, 15, 21, 22, 25, 27

Hutchison Whampoa’s managing director Canning Fok also joined Chairman Li’s buying spree and bought 5 million shares on Dec. 22, 2009 at an average price of HK$50.2 (equivalent to OTC Pink Sheet US$32.38) per share, upping stake to 0.11% from 0.10%.

Li  has also commented that the conglomerate is now seeing “smooth ride” at 3G business, which showing “marked improvement” in cashflow and reduction in debt.

Share Performance

Hutchison Whampoa has been a big laggard in Hong Kong blue chips for many years, dragged down by its unprofitable 3 G investment. However, it has outperformed Hang Seng Index in the past month, and the 15 year chart shows it has established a bottom and is on an uptrend.

Funds’ Target Prices

  • HSBC – HK$69 (equivalent to OTC Pink Sheet US$44.5)
  • Macquarie – HK$75 (US$48.3)
  • Bank of America-Merrill Lynch – HK$66 (US$42.5)
  • Citi – HK$69 (US$44.4)
  • CS – HK$69 (US$44.4)
  • BNP – HK$65 (US$41.9)

The Stock closed at HK$55.5 (US$35.76) on February 23 on Hong Kong Stock Exchange. HUTCHISON WHAMPOA LT closed at US$35.5 on February 22 on Wall Street.

Conclusions

Hutchison’s 2009 performance lagged broader market due to continued 3 Group disappointment, but the market has likely digested 3 Group’s weak prospects by now. Risk is on the upside if 3G business, the key drag on share prices for years turns around.

Hutchison’s diversified business in retail, property investment and container-shipping port sectors will benefit from global economic recovery. The Group’s landbank in China was acquired at relatively low cost that would give high margins from development sales.

The unprecendented buying frequency by Chairman Li could mark turnaround in prospects, as Hutchison’s attraction lies in the stock’s close to 40% discount to NAV. The year 2010 may be the turn around year for Hutchison’s share performance.

Hutchison has limited downside, with support levels at HK$52.5 (US$33.86) and HK$49 (US$31.6) and resistant levels at HK$60 (US$38.7) and HK$70 (US$45.1). There is a breakaway gap between HK$65.25 and $67.7 on both the daily and weekly charts in the second week of September 2008, which is likely to be filled. In addition, Hutchison’s forthcoming China mainland listing will be a share price catalyst. In short, Hutchison is a top pick in China Hong Kong blue chips.

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  • China Nepstar Chain Drugstore – The Lucky Star

    China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NYSE: NPD) is China’s largest retail drugstore chain based on the number of directly operated stores. Established in 1995, China Nepstar has grown from a single shop into a chain of 2,337 directly operated outlets covering 67 cities in China by September 30, 2009.

    China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd. went public on November 9, 2007, through an IPO of 23,718,750 American Depository Shares (including green shoe) offered at a price of US$16.20 per ADS and raised US$334 million capital. This was the first time a retail chain from China was listed on NYSE. It was also the largest Chinese pharmaceutical company ever listed in US.

    The success of China Nepstar is a legend in mainland China. There are many media reports about it. By reading those reports, it is interesting to learn that the company had made a record of opening one new drugstore every 15 hours, and that China Napstar had actually suffered losses for 10 years in a row till 2005, just 2 years before its debut on NYSE.

    Shenzhen Nepstar Medical Co. Ltd. was established in June 1995 in Shenzhen, the China city on the boarder of the then British colony Hong Kong.  Seeing that there was not even one drug chain store in China, Simin Zhang, the founder of China Nepstar started to build his drug chain store empire. Shenzhen Nepstar then joined the National Association of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) as its first Chinese member in January 1996.

    Owing to regulatory restrictions, China Nepstar was at first only allowed to establish the chain stores in Shenzhen.  By the year 2000, there were less than 120 outlets.  After 2000, the regulations limiting drug retails gradually abated, and China Nepstar quickly increased its outlets to 550 directly owned drug stores in the southern provinces of China by 2004.

    The rapid expansion created financial problems for China Nepstar.  Between 2002 and 2003, its inventories, current liabilities and accounts payables were more than doubled. Its current ratio dropped to 0.9 from 1.33.  Due to continuous losses, shareholders’ equity had decreased from RMB 70 million to RMB 56 million. In 2004, China Nepstar’s net loss was RMB 20.8 million with a chain of 668 drugstores.

    During its difficult time, the white knight appeared.  Goldman Sachs had been studying the pharmaceutical companies in China for quite a while and China Napstar was their focus.  In the later half of 2004, China Nepstar made agreements with 5 institutional investors affiliated with The Goldman Sachs Group (GS).  China Nepstar was restructured in order to raise capital.   Simin Zhang incorporated China Neptunus Drugstore Holding (Neptunus BVI) in the British Virgin Islands.  China Nepstar issued 115 million ordinary shares, of which 93.7% were issued to Neptunus BVI so that the former became the holding company of the Nepstar group.  The remaining shares were issued to China Star Chain owned by the management team of Nepstar Health.  China Nepstar then issued a total of 50 million Series A redeemable convertible preferred shares to the Goldman Sachs Funds at an average price of US$0.5 per share for US$ 25 million in October and December 2004. Hence, GS, Neptunus VBI and China Star Chain owned 30.3%, 66.06% and 3.64% equity interest in China Nepstar, respectively.

    Unproved reports from mainland China said the above share placement agreement with GS required China Nepstar to fulfill a Valuation Adjustment Mechanism (VAM).  China Nepstar had to achieve the following targets under such VAM.

    First, China Nepstar must be able to achieve financial targets set by GS in 2004 , otherwise, GS could acquire half of the issued Series A convertible preferred shares at face value of US$ 0.0001, i.e.  GS would obtain an additional 15 million shares almost free.

    Second, China Nepstar must be able to realize an effective IPO, i.e.  China Nepstar’s assessable value must be over US$ 250 million before submitting the IPO application, and China Nepstar must be able to raise at least US$50 million after deducting IPO expenses.  Therefore, China Nepstar must achieve adequate net income to support its IPO application.

    Third, China Nepstar must expand its retail chain to 2000 – 2500 stores in 5 years with annual revenue of RMB 4,000 million and annual net income of RMB 100 million.

    In order to achieve these targets, China Nepstar had to expand rapidly.  In 2004, the number of stores and the revenue increased by 52.86% and 55.19%, respectively.  In 2005, the number of stores surpassed 1000 units to 1115, a 66.92% increase year-on-year.  Revenue rose 55.8% to RMB 1,310 million.  In 2006, China Nepstar made a record of opening a new drugstore every day.  The number of stores increased 29.96% to 1,446 and the revenue increased 31.93% to RMB 1,730 million in the same year. In 2007 the above record was broken by opening a new drugstore every 15 hours!  The pressure to achieve those targets was so high that some senior executives including the general manager left China Nepstar.

    To increase gross profit, China Nepstar launched private label products in September 2005 and since then its private label portfolio had increased to 1356 products marketed under 133 private labels, accounting for 18.7% of their revenue and 30% of its gross profit by December 2007. The rapid growth in company size strengthened its buying power and harsher terms were imposed on suppliers in favor of China Napstar.  More aggressive marketing strategies were adopted and customer loyalty programs were launched successfully.

    By December 31, 2007, there were 2002 drugstores and the revenue had increased to RMB 1,955 million.  In 2005 China Nepstar still suffered a RMB 17.95 million net loss, but in 2006 it turned the loss to a profit of RMB 13.6 million, which was further increased to a net income of RMB 148 million in 2007, far above the target of RMB 100 million.

    Although China Nepstar achieved less than 50% of the revenue target RMB 4,000 million, overall the rest of the targets were accomplished and it was able to submit its IPO via Goldman Sachs’ recommendation.  

    After its IPO issuance in 2007, China Nepstar’s revenue increased to RMB 2,397 million (US$351 million) with a net income of RMB 19.27 million (US$2.83 million) in 2008.  The total number of drugstores was 2709. Though this number was further increased to 2337 by September 2009, unproved reports said in the first half of 2009, China Nepstar closed 77 drugstores, i.e. closing one drugstore every 2.3 days!  China Nepstar’s success has also invited competition. Some famous drugstores in China are following China Nepstar’s path, opening chain stores to compete with China Nepstar.

    By the third quarter of 2009, revenue was further increased by 8% year-on-year to RMB 556 million (US$ 81million) with a net income of RMB 37 million (US$ 5 million). In its official quarterly report, Nepstar said it opened 47 new stores and closed 22 stores during the first 3 quarters of 2009.

    The performance of China Nepstar in the stock market was lackluster.  Since its debut on NYSE in November 2007, its has dropped 60%. Attribution to economic recession is not justified because it has underperformed many indices since 2008, e.g. Shanghai Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Nasdaq China Index and Hong Kong Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Its share price closed at $7.11 on January 15. It has been unable to break the $8 resistance for the past few months. Technical indicators like RSI are weak, though it has strong support between the $6 and $6.5 range. If you bought China Nepstar in the past few months to capture the rush for pharmaceutical stocks, you have chosen the wrong one. Sinopharm (Hong Kong stock code 1099) has risen over 60% since its debut on Hong Kong Stock Exchange last October.  Another H share Guangzhou Pharm (Hong Kong stock code 0874) which has been listed in Hong Kong since 2003, has also risen over 50% since last October.  On November 12, 2007 Guangzhou Pharm was HK$6.85 and on Jan 15, 2010 it was still HK$6.8, while China Nepstar dropped 60% during the same period.

    Some cynical people in China say China Nepstar, and actually its founder, is a lucky star because it has been chosen by Goldman Sachs. The founder Simin Zhang invested RMB 130 million in China Nepstar from 1995 to 2007 at a loss. The value of China Nepstar shares held by him was worth RMB 6875 million at US$17.58 per ADS on December 31 2007, which was 52 times of what he had invested!

    Related article:

    China May Cut Drug Prices Again After Chinese New Year (1-27-2011)

    China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NYSE: NPD) Transforms Into Grocery & Convenience Stores

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